KSE-100 Feared Bulls bringing Bears back in the ring
High Volatility expected with low volume in early hours
By:
Khalid Saifuddin
Monday, 23rd, Nov, 2009
Once again market getting out of its upward channel, yesterday market exactly closed around the critical level, and it was also observed the market tested the third given support.
All these are happening because of the present uncertainty due to NRO and the coming monetary policy, though we are not looking into any trouble making monetary policy. But investors shy to hold the positions.
Foreign investors still buying positions, just today their net buying was 865,507 USD and Mutual Funds were in buying too, they scored net buying of 889,836 USD, the shrinkage of volume added depression to the investors, though they were having an opportunity of buying their positions on cheaper price.
Now from here technically market getting into the bearish phase, the only hope for the market is to trade in positive zone today and closing above 9,247 will bring some hopes for Bulls.
Key Levels
9,425
9,368
9,320
9,286
9,247
9,216
9,176
9,144
9,119
9,086
9,037
8,990
Recommendations
Trade on key levels with the strict stop losses, market has more chances of going down from here, focus on your target buy.
Call for further assistance 021-3432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Weekly Forecast for KSE for 4th Week of Nov. 2009
Weekly Forecast for KSE for 4th Week of Nov. 2009
Market Technically: Bullish
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
I am happy for all those who accurately followed the live calls and morning briefing, Shukar Alhumdulillah; despite of volatility market made possible for the day traders to book their returns. I hope you guys now realized why I was not encouraging the banking sector all week, likewise the performance of Cement sector. But tell you the securities performance was little weird.
I see comfortable position on political side, though we did not see any development, but government gaining confidence, the opposition once again on back foot.
The New government formation in Afghanistan made Pakistan more important in region. Leverage product on its way, government comfortably raised the power tariff.
Currently NFC award meetings enhanced the brotherhood among the provinces, now the next meeting in Lahore will bring some positive results.
Now the 9,425 will be giving resistance to the market and once breaking this level, then we will be having dancing Bulls everywhere. This week we achieved some of target buys for the last quarter portfolio.
On the other hand breaking 9,229 may bring Bears back in ring. So far the FIPI and the local institution supported market by buying new positions and I am sure this support will be continued as most of the scrip still trading on discount rate.
Recommendation:
Market is in Bullish phase, it is required to be specific on your scrip selection. Please follow the morning call and our key levels for your trades.
Key Levels
9662
9572
9484
9425
9229
9123
8952
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
Foreign-awarded investment appetite should redress local threats’ upshot.
Cross-border stream of equity investments is portraying mount in financial globalization. The increasing foreign reserves coupled with improved appetite for foreign investors to invest in our capital markets would help reduce the country’s risk premium and so the cost of capital. This in turn should prop up local investors to invest in money-spinning projects and thus further boost the performance of capital market. In part of our banking sector, loan portfolios are apt to recuperate in forthcoming quarters, primarily in correspondence to the risk-avert attitude of banks toward fresh lending. Though the rebound is still at its infant stage and can witness sector’s depression on account of some prevalent factors, SBP’s monetary-freeing initiative would be a favorable driver for fresh banking rally. However, the upcoming threat for our already ramshackle industry and trade is looming in form of hike in power tariff and surging imported inflation. At local level, SPI has also increased not only for the lowest income group by 1.18 percent but also for combined group by 0.92 percent on weekly basis, bullying superfluous push in consumption levels. Threat of social insecurity is also diverting FDI towards foreign aids pushing the country under foreign dependencies. This calls for proper coordination among fiscal, monetary and foreign trade policies as well as control in political and social uncertainty to at least balance the economy in severe slam stage. Until these initiatives, foreign portfolio investments and softening monetary condition should alleviate the outcomes of these threats to some extent leastways.
We congratulate our clients that our target buy levels given in Commercial Banking Report on Nov. 5 have been hit.
Forex
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
I hope you might have profitably traded with our accurately tested buying calls.
Pair rotation glimpsed.
Slow revival of U.S. economy signals going on rally but volatility may take its toll.
After shaking off an aborted rally aloft, Euro deflated against dollar, followed by downside in European equity markets on account of an array of second-rate corporate news and commodity price declines in coupled with revised OECD GDP forecasts. Rebound in dollar was driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s lashing comments regarding implications of changes in the value of the dollar as well as by interest rate cut for extended period.
Going forward, U.S. economic indicators depict modest recovery owing to little rise in retail auto sales, industrial production and housing. This slightly raised core inflation. Yet, the pace of growth seems too slow to keep the rotation. Unemployment is forecasted to be sub-par for at least first two quarters of the coming year. The unemployment may further bring about credit risks for consumer and real estate debt. Interest rate cut and fiscal spending are expected to settle at the same track. However, upcoming mid-term elections in 2010 would squirt volatility and hence interest rates and dollar would prone to political pressures on Fed and vagaries of foreign central bank’s support for the dollar.
Trend: Sideways – empowering Bears (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)
Recommendation: Enter with Short and Follow the key levels (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)
EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.5000 and 1.4845. The selling pressure continuously pushing down the EURO, though bulls are striving hard to get back into game; very soon we are going to see the breakout in pair. Intraday possibilities become narrow; the short trades will be appreciated.
Target your short around 1.4845 and if you trail your stop loss then you can drag your target up to 1.4780.
I don’t see much of hopes for bullish sentiment in short term; you may see some retracement of the trend. Well I am more concentrating on short term trades to benefit most of the day traders.
Extract from Successful Calls Last Week
Symbol Action Short Price Buying Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48546 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 21.6
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48537 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 22.5
EUR/USD S 1.49126 1.48846 11/17/2009 5:19 11/17/2009 7:57 28
EUR/USD S 1.48783 1.48308 11/20/2009 5:49 11/20/2009 7:07 47.5
EUR/USD S 1.48736 1.48308 11/20/2009 6:01 11/20/2009 7:07 42.8
Symbol Action Buy Price Selling Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD B 1.4913 1.49227 11/20/2009 1:57 11/20/2009 2:04 9.7
EUR/USD B 1.48135 1.48235 11/20/2009 7:09 11/20/2009 7:12 10
To receive further live calls on EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us.
s
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Market Technically: Bullish
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
I am happy for all those who accurately followed the live calls and morning briefing, Shukar Alhumdulillah; despite of volatility market made possible for the day traders to book their returns. I hope you guys now realized why I was not encouraging the banking sector all week, likewise the performance of Cement sector. But tell you the securities performance was little weird.
I see comfortable position on political side, though we did not see any development, but government gaining confidence, the opposition once again on back foot.
The New government formation in Afghanistan made Pakistan more important in region. Leverage product on its way, government comfortably raised the power tariff.
Currently NFC award meetings enhanced the brotherhood among the provinces, now the next meeting in Lahore will bring some positive results.
Now the 9,425 will be giving resistance to the market and once breaking this level, then we will be having dancing Bulls everywhere. This week we achieved some of target buys for the last quarter portfolio.
On the other hand breaking 9,229 may bring Bears back in ring. So far the FIPI and the local institution supported market by buying new positions and I am sure this support will be continued as most of the scrip still trading on discount rate.
Recommendation:
Market is in Bullish phase, it is required to be specific on your scrip selection. Please follow the morning call and our key levels for your trades.
Key Levels
9662
9572
9484
9425
9229
9123
8952
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
Foreign-awarded investment appetite should redress local threats’ upshot.
Cross-border stream of equity investments is portraying mount in financial globalization. The increasing foreign reserves coupled with improved appetite for foreign investors to invest in our capital markets would help reduce the country’s risk premium and so the cost of capital. This in turn should prop up local investors to invest in money-spinning projects and thus further boost the performance of capital market. In part of our banking sector, loan portfolios are apt to recuperate in forthcoming quarters, primarily in correspondence to the risk-avert attitude of banks toward fresh lending. Though the rebound is still at its infant stage and can witness sector’s depression on account of some prevalent factors, SBP’s monetary-freeing initiative would be a favorable driver for fresh banking rally. However, the upcoming threat for our already ramshackle industry and trade is looming in form of hike in power tariff and surging imported inflation. At local level, SPI has also increased not only for the lowest income group by 1.18 percent but also for combined group by 0.92 percent on weekly basis, bullying superfluous push in consumption levels. Threat of social insecurity is also diverting FDI towards foreign aids pushing the country under foreign dependencies. This calls for proper coordination among fiscal, monetary and foreign trade policies as well as control in political and social uncertainty to at least balance the economy in severe slam stage. Until these initiatives, foreign portfolio investments and softening monetary condition should alleviate the outcomes of these threats to some extent leastways.
We congratulate our clients that our target buy levels given in Commercial Banking Report on Nov. 5 have been hit.
Forex
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
I hope you might have profitably traded with our accurately tested buying calls.
Pair rotation glimpsed.
Slow revival of U.S. economy signals going on rally but volatility may take its toll.
After shaking off an aborted rally aloft, Euro deflated against dollar, followed by downside in European equity markets on account of an array of second-rate corporate news and commodity price declines in coupled with revised OECD GDP forecasts. Rebound in dollar was driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s lashing comments regarding implications of changes in the value of the dollar as well as by interest rate cut for extended period.
Going forward, U.S. economic indicators depict modest recovery owing to little rise in retail auto sales, industrial production and housing. This slightly raised core inflation. Yet, the pace of growth seems too slow to keep the rotation. Unemployment is forecasted to be sub-par for at least first two quarters of the coming year. The unemployment may further bring about credit risks for consumer and real estate debt. Interest rate cut and fiscal spending are expected to settle at the same track. However, upcoming mid-term elections in 2010 would squirt volatility and hence interest rates and dollar would prone to political pressures on Fed and vagaries of foreign central bank’s support for the dollar.
Trend: Sideways – empowering Bears (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)
Recommendation: Enter with Short and Follow the key levels (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)
EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.5000 and 1.4845. The selling pressure continuously pushing down the EURO, though bulls are striving hard to get back into game; very soon we are going to see the breakout in pair. Intraday possibilities become narrow; the short trades will be appreciated.
Target your short around 1.4845 and if you trail your stop loss then you can drag your target up to 1.4780.
I don’t see much of hopes for bullish sentiment in short term; you may see some retracement of the trend. Well I am more concentrating on short term trades to benefit most of the day traders.
Extract from Successful Calls Last Week
Symbol Action Short Price Buying Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48546 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 21.6
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48537 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 22.5
EUR/USD S 1.49126 1.48846 11/17/2009 5:19 11/17/2009 7:57 28
EUR/USD S 1.48783 1.48308 11/20/2009 5:49 11/20/2009 7:07 47.5
EUR/USD S 1.48736 1.48308 11/20/2009 6:01 11/20/2009 7:07 42.8
Symbol Action Buy Price Selling Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD B 1.4913 1.49227 11/20/2009 1:57 11/20/2009 2:04 9.7
EUR/USD B 1.48135 1.48235 11/20/2009 7:09 11/20/2009 7:12 10
To receive further live calls on EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us.
s
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Current View on Karachi Stock Exchange
KSE-100: –Profit taking still not over - Hold your positions
Do not loose Hopes, but if selling continuous below 9,101 then get out
Bulls initiated with the power as market started, but later on lost their control in front of Bears exactly from our 2nd resistance level. Market still got the inflow of USD 6,185,301 but the mutual fund observed selling around USD 4,985,279. Still market did not reached around my getting out call, as bull manage to hold 9,137 by supporting. As indicated in my last call to stay away from banking; banks are only recommended if you see your target buy price.
Now the Thursday is very important to evaluate the status of our portfolio, though market already took comfortable points for its intraday correction, with allowing the traders for profit taking. Trading below 9067 will take market under complete control of bears; I wish market would not see more then 50 negative points during trade.
It is required to have some bullish activities on Thursday to stay in the channel; I guess market will able to decide its trend today. The political and economic development may bring some buying. Unfortunately the local institutions are feared of buying; in fact it is good time for specially institution for having their focus buying.
Intraday traders must follow the key levels for their trading, and the focus buyer look for their target buying they might get some of the scrip around their target price.
Key Levels for Today will be:
9,360
9,315
9,276
9,230
9,185
9,145
9,101
9,067
9,020
8,987
8,922
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Do not loose Hopes, but if selling continuous below 9,101 then get out
Bulls initiated with the power as market started, but later on lost their control in front of Bears exactly from our 2nd resistance level. Market still got the inflow of USD 6,185,301 but the mutual fund observed selling around USD 4,985,279. Still market did not reached around my getting out call, as bull manage to hold 9,137 by supporting. As indicated in my last call to stay away from banking; banks are only recommended if you see your target buy price.
Now the Thursday is very important to evaluate the status of our portfolio, though market already took comfortable points for its intraday correction, with allowing the traders for profit taking. Trading below 9067 will take market under complete control of bears; I wish market would not see more then 50 negative points during trade.
It is required to have some bullish activities on Thursday to stay in the channel; I guess market will able to decide its trend today. The political and economic development may bring some buying. Unfortunately the local institutions are feared of buying; in fact it is good time for specially institution for having their focus buying.
Intraday traders must follow the key levels for their trading, and the focus buyer look for their target buying they might get some of the scrip around their target price.
Key Levels for Today will be:
9,360
9,315
9,276
9,230
9,185
9,145
9,101
9,067
9,020
8,987
8,922
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Current view on Karachi Stock Exchange
KSE-100: –Profit taking still not over - Hold your positions
Do not loose Hopes, but if selling continuous below 9,101 then get out
Bulls initiated with the power as market started, but later on lost their control in front of Bears exactly from our 2nd resistance level. Market still got the inflow of USD 6,185,301 but the mutual fund observed selling around USD 4,985,279. Still market did not reached around my getting out call, as bull manage to hold 9,137 by supporting. As indicated in my last call to stay away from banking; banks are only recommended if you see your target buy price.
Now the Thursday is very important to evaluate the status of our portfolio, though market already took comfortable points for its intraday correction, with allowing the traders for profit taking. Trading below 9067 will take market under complete control of bears; I wish market would not see more then 50 negative points during trade.
It is required to have some bullish activities on Thursday to stay in the channel; I guess market will able to decide its trend today. The political and economic development may bring some buying. Unfortunately the local institutions are feared of buying; in fact it is good time for specially institution for having their focus buying.
Intraday traders must follow the key levels for their trading, and the focus buyer look for their target buying they might get some of the scrip around their target price.
Key Levels for Today will be:
9,360
9,315
9,276
9,230
9,185
9,145
9,101
9,067
9,020
8,987
8,922
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Do not loose Hopes, but if selling continuous below 9,101 then get out
Bulls initiated with the power as market started, but later on lost their control in front of Bears exactly from our 2nd resistance level. Market still got the inflow of USD 6,185,301 but the mutual fund observed selling around USD 4,985,279. Still market did not reached around my getting out call, as bull manage to hold 9,137 by supporting. As indicated in my last call to stay away from banking; banks are only recommended if you see your target buy price.
Now the Thursday is very important to evaluate the status of our portfolio, though market already took comfortable points for its intraday correction, with allowing the traders for profit taking. Trading below 9067 will take market under complete control of bears; I wish market would not see more then 50 negative points during trade.
It is required to have some bullish activities on Thursday to stay in the channel; I guess market will able to decide its trend today. The political and economic development may bring some buying. Unfortunately the local institutions are feared of buying; in fact it is good time for specially institution for having their focus buying.
Intraday traders must follow the key levels for their trading, and the focus buyer look for their target buying they might get some of the scrip around their target price.
Key Levels for Today will be:
9,360
9,315
9,276
9,230
9,185
9,145
9,101
9,067
9,020
8,987
8,922
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Time to focus on target buy for last Qtr
KSE-100: – Consistent Profit taking observed - Hold your positions
Do not loose Hopes - Sit tight for the targets
Once again with the grace of Almighty my selling call honored and I am happy for all those who followed my profit taking call on 9,350. and I am sure whoever is getting my scrip analysis are having fun tonight as most of the scrip exactly went down from the given level.
I am not saying market is Bearish from here, Market still got the inflow of USD 4,489,475 today basically it was a regular profit taking call and scrip goes down to their support where it is still good to buy. Do not panic here, but it is wise to off load most of your positions if you see market trading below 9,110 and closing below this level will wake up bears.
Intraday traders must follow the key levels for their trading, and the focus buyer look for their target buying they might get some of the scrip around their target price. Volatility will exist and possibility of shrinkage in volume: I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions. The ultimate hopes are still bullish;
Recommendations:
Please follow the scrip analysis under the light of above commentary on KSE-100 Index
Key Levels
9,491
9,422
9,385
9,334
9,249
9,204
9,178
9,110
9,064
8,991
8,946
8,879
Follow the last day scrip analysis, key levels are same. Try off loading your positions, and buy back half of it when you see a dip
Call me for any further query at 0213-432 2350 or 0345-276 8680 email @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
Have a good trade.
Regards
Khalid Saifuddin
Disclaimer: This commentary or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Bhangras in Karachi Stock Exchange
KSE-100: Bullish – Bhangras of Bulls recorded
Secure traders advised profit taking around 9,350. Good to buy between 9,240 and 9,280 make your stop loss of 25 points below the buying range. Currently market targeting 9,640. Market welcomed inflow of 4,455,955 US dollars today and mutual funds were so vibrant scored positively 6,259,923 US dollars alone for market. Multiple developments make comfortable takeoff.
Breaking and closing below 9150 will be the indication for exit and 9,080 will be the exit for delivery holders.
For new readers some of my last day forecast:
I can see some fresh and vibrant buying and developing bullish sentiments from here, it is time for everybody to reschedule their portfolios targeting the Feb-Mar, 2010, as most of the scrip are trading on discounted rate with desire to go up, and some sectors are about to perform good in their last quarter.
Market is in Early Bullish mode, Volatility will exist until the market achieves its minimum required volumes; I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyers for high returns.
Recommendations:
Please follow the scrip analysis under the light of above commentary on KSE-100 Index.
Call for more detail 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 email: safelyinvest@gmail.com
Key Levels for KSE-100
9,641
9,542
9,496
9,422
9,350
9,272
9,198
9,151
9,079
9,020
8,942
8,838
8,740
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS
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